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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. ..Mosier/Halbert.. 04/19/2025 Read more

MD 0481 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...Southwest Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191026Z - 191300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely continue across parts of southeast Missouri, and may affect parts of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana later this morning. New watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from St. Louis shows a short bowing line segment moving through southeast Missouri. The line segment is located near a boundary along the western edge of a moist airmass, where the RAP has MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The line is also located near the entrance region of an 80 to 90 knot mid-level speed max. This feature is contributing to lift and strong deep-layer shear. RAP forecast soundings in southeast Missouri have 0-6 km shear near 70 knots, with 40 knots of flow about 700 meters above ground level. This, combined with a forward speed of about 50 knots, suggest the bowing line segment will be associated with severe gusts. As the line moves northeastward across southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois, wind gusts exceeding 70 mph will be possible. If the line can intensify, then watch issuance would become necessary. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37949095 37639118 37409116 37199101 37089068 37109040 37378927 38038745 38338678 38798646 39268665 39568690 39668714 39648768 39488818 39208875 38419026 37949095 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Multiple bands/clusters of convection are ongoing this morning from parts of eastern OK northeastward to the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Much of this activity should remain elevated, with isolated hail/wind potential in the short term. In the wake of these thunderstorms, an upper trough/low will eject from the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the period. A front should generally remain stalled across the southern Plains and towards the Ozarks today, as surface cyclogenesis occurs over far west TX. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, additional robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, combined with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, are expected to support moderate instability across the warm sector, with peak MLCAPE values potentially reaching up to 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support intense updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. Initial supercells will likely pose a threat for very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. Strengthening low-level shear in tandem with the increasing low-level jet should also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Given increased confidence in multiple intense supercells developing this afternoon, an Enhanced Risk has been introduced across parts of west-central to western north TX with this update. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Instability is expected to remain fairly weak along/ahead of the surface front extending from southern MO across the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Even so, strong west-southwesterly winds through low/mid-levels may support a threat for isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes through the day. Multiple ongoing clusters of elevated convection from the Ozarks to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys may become surface based over the next several hours with filtered daytime heating. Have therefore expanded the Slight Risk for damaging winds northeastward across these areas in a narrow zone along/near the front. A rather strong mid-level jet will overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today, as an upper trough develops eastward over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft should aid in modest destabilization by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to conditionally support supercells, although there should be a tendency for convection that develops along the front to become more linear with time. Based on recent guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/damaging wind potential eastward across these areas. Greater severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a organized cluster developing. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/19/2025 Read more