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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...17z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Minimal trimming was made to the critical area where the cold front has advanced farther south in Southwest TX. Strong heating will still allow for a few hours of dry/wind conditions over this area through the afternoon. Otherwise, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies today, encouraging surface cyclone development over the southern Plains. Dry westerly downslope flow across southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas is expected by afternoon, with sustained surface winds reaching 20-25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH. Given that very dry fuels are also present over the region, Critical highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, dry southeasterly flow is likely across western portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained wind speeds may overlap with 25-35 percent RH for several hours, necessitating Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more