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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across Texas into southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...20z Update.. No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. Thunderstorm activity has initiated within the Enhanced near the dryline and front intersection across southwestern Texas. Initial supercells across this area will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening, the threat for a few tornadoes may increase. See MCD483 for more information. Convection will continue intermittently along the cold front draped from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, to the Northeast. Strongly sheared profiles and continued heating through the afternoon will support some intensification of activity at times, with potential for damaging wind. See previous discussion and MCD484 for more information. ..Thornton/Moiser.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Morning surface analysis places a cold front from just south of MAF (in west Texas) northeastward through ARG (in northeast AR). Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of this front across OK and AR, and associated outflow is still aiding in more eastward/southeastward progression of this boundary across northern/central AR. This eastward/southeastward progression is expected to slow with time as additional surface cyclogenesis occurs across west TX ahead of a deep shortwave trough progressing across Southwest. Low-level southerly/southeasterly flow will persist south of the stalling boundary, leading to a sharpening of the gradient through this afternoon/evening. By this afternoon, dewpoints are expected to be in mid 60s along this boundary from southwest TX into the Mid-South. This low-level moisture combined with modest heating will result in airmass destabilization. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. An initial supercell mode is anticipated, with large hail as the primary risk. Storms will likely remain elevated from northwest TX into the Ozarks, but surface-based storms are more likely across southwest TX. Here, some very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter is possible. Strong outflow is possible as well. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. The strengthening low-level jet and resultant increase in low-level shear could also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Additionally, another round of storms appears likely across Permian Basin/southwest TX late this evening as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern High Plains. These storms should have a more linear orientation, with damaging gusts as the primary risk as they progress eastward toward central TX late tonight/early tomorrow. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Current surface analysis places a cold front extending southwestward from central Ontario through far southern IL and far southeast MO. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this front, with much of this activity elevated behind the front across the Mid MS and OH Valleys where the deep-layer flow is more parallel to the boundary. A trend towards a more surface-based structure is anticipated this afternoon as daytime heating promotes modest airmass destabilization ahead of the front and the flow become more orthogonal to the boundary, particularly across the Upper OH Valley and Northeast. Mid-level flow is expected to strengthen this afternoon and evening, and despite modest buoyancy, deep-layer shear will be strong to support linear structures capable of damaging gusts, especially as convection that develops along the front becomes more linear with time. Overall storm coverage is expected to be high enough to merit 15% wind probabilities along the front into southern NY. Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more