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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be over the upper MS Valley Monday morning, with a trough extending southeast toward the OH Valley. This system will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast through Tuesday morning, losing amplitude as it flattens a ridge along the East Coast. To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes system will extend from western NY/PA southward toward the TN Valley during the afternoon, and becoming stationary over the lower MS Valley. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the length of the boundary, severe chances appear low. Northern areas from OH into NY will experience more favorable lift in association with the upper wave to the west, but only weak instability with in a narrow axis is forecast. Farther south, shear will be very weak. Elsewhere, isolated storms are possible from MT during the day where lapse rates will be very steep beneath the upper trough. Activity may develop late night from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN with the aid of a developing low-level jet as well, and small hail cannot be ruled out with this activity with very steep midlevel lapse rates and minimal melting. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

MD 0482 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...western and central Pennsylvania and adjacent southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191716Z - 191915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some convective intensification is forecast this afternoon, accompanied by gusty winds and some potential for locally severe/damaging gusts. Need for WW issuance appears unlikely at this time, but will we will monitor convective evolution. DISCUSSION...Meager instability is indicated across the central Appalachians area early this afternoon, though sparse cloud cover across western and central Pennsylvania and into adjacent southern New York will aid in gradual/modest destabilization over the next few hours. A band of thunderstorms is now crossing the Pennsylvania/Ohio border, moving rapidly east-northeastward at around 60 kt. This storm motion is being supported by quasi-unidirectional west-southwesterly flow through the mid troposphere, increasing with height to around 50 kt at 2km and around 90kt at 4km. The strength of the flow field and associated speed of storm motion suggests potential for locally strong wind gusts -- particularly with any appreciable destabilization. However, with generally weak CAPE likely to remain somewhat of a limiting factor, WW issuance is currently not anticipated. ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40508087 41318043 42327825 42467656 41037663 40717767 40408021 40508087 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...MO...AR...Portions of surrounding states... A compact shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the TX Panhandle Sunday morning and into IA by evening. An intense leading speed max will accompany this wave with strong cooling aloft over OK, northwest AR, MO and IA. A surface low will deepen as it develops northward out of OK and into IA as well. The cold front will move across far eastern KS and OK and into AR and MO by mid afternoon, with a warm front moving north and extending from northern MO into central IL/IN/OH by 00Z. Moderate southerly winds in the low levels will aid moisture advection with low 60s F dewpoints behind the warm front. Early day rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over MO and IL in association with the advancing warm front. Areas of heating will occur behind this activity, and ahead of the approaching cold front with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Storms will form by early afternoon over far eastern KS and OK, with an elongated and partially broken line of supercells from the IA/MO border into AR through 00Z. Wind profiles will favor supercells as the primary storm mode along the length of the cold front, with the most likely area for tornadoes from northern AR into central MO where instability may be strongest. Farther north, cooler midlevel temperatures and stronger low-level shear may still support supercells and tornado risk despite weaker instability. The severe threat will peak during the afternoon and early evening as the upper system pulls north of the area, however, at least isolated severe storms may persist into the night across IL and southward along the MS River. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2025 Read more