Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 8 20:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more