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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf Coast States with time. As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S. coast. ...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader area of precipitation. As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new round of convective development is forecast to begin by early afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such, local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the stronger/longer-lived updrafts. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more