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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over portions of northern Arkansas into Missouri and far west-central Illinois. ...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough located over the southern High Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast through the period, becoming oriented over the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes vicinity by Monday morning. A belt of intense south/southwest deep-layer flow associated with this feature will overspread portions of the eastern OK into the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley, with a 500 mb jet streak around 70-90 kt over the Lower MO Valley around 21-00z. At the surface, low pressure over OK at the beginning of the period will lift north/northeast over the Lower MO Valley by 00z, and into southern WI by 12z Monday. A cold front will sweep east across the region as this occurs, while a warm front lifts northward across MO/IL. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with mainly low 60s F dewpoints forecast. Mid-60s F dewpoints are more likely from eastern OK/AR southward. Some uncertainty still remains regarding the degree of destabilization across the region. Cloud cover and areas of precipitation during the morning hours could limit stronger destabilization, as well as prevent steepening of low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, deep-layer flow will be quite strong during the day and into the evening (decreasing with southward extent toward east TX/northern LA). Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, and initial supercells may be possible ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Convection may tend to grow upscale into one or more line segments given linear forcing along the cold front. Nevertheless, tornadoes will be possible with either storm mode given backed low-level winds contributing to enlarged, looping low-level hodographs, and a strong low-level jet supporting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2. Swaths of damaging gusts also will be possible, especially as convection becomes organized into an eastward progressing line. ..Leitman.. 04/19/2025 Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 145 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 190225Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 925 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms to the north of southwest/northeast-oriented boundary across the region will pose mainly a large hail risk along with the potential for localized severe-wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Altus OK to 15 miles northeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-143-193-235-267-307-319-327- 333-399-411-413-431-435-441-451-190640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON IRION KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more