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MD 0473 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0835 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190135Z - 190300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase late this evening and into the overnight period, including the potential for supercells. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop along the front in northeast Oklahoma this evening. Expect storm coverage to increase along the front through the evening and into the overnight period as the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated hail will be the primary threat north of the front with the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado along and south of the front. However, the threat for storms along and on the warm side of the boundary remains questionable given the boundary orientation and storm motion. A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued to address this threat continuing into the overnight period. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35339580 36449493 37259421 38439240 38469125 38099083 37379070 36399092 35689220 34999337 34739426 34819504 34889562 35339580 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...Much of Oklahoma and parts of Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190104Z - 190230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening with some surface based storm threat possible later this evening. DISCUSSION...An expansive cirrus shield has limited surface based instability this afternoon/evening across much of the warm sector which has limited the diurnal threat. However, north of this front, some elevated convection has started to develop from the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This convection is currently quite weak which is not surprising given the weak instability and the capped environment farther southeast (00Z OUN RAOB) where better instability does exist. Continued mid-level cooling and 850mb moistening (associated with the strengthening low-level jet) will lead to an increasingly favorable environment for elevated convection this evening. Strong shear will support supercells with a a primary hazard of large hail. Later tonight, initially elevated convection across parts of northwest Texas may eventually move into a continually moistening boundary layer across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These storms may pose a greater threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado in addition to the large hail threat. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33160000 33720021 35110042 35869993 36559822 36979545 35979502 34759561 33379741 33159926 33160000 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0145 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0144 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more