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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more