SPC Apr 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 20, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC MD 487

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192329Z - 200100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A WW issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain relatively unimpeded inflow. Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569 34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785 32689796 33059786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147

Severe Storms
4 months 3 weeks ago
WW 147 SEVERE TSTM TX 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase in the vicinity of stationary boundary extended across the region. Environmental conditions support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3 to 3.5". Several strong gusts are possible as well. Any supercells that persist within the warm sector could produce a tornado or two, but the overall tornado potential is expected to remain low through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east of Dryden TX to 85 miles north northwest of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more