Aggregator

MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Pennsylvania and northeast Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 200243Z - 200415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will accompany an eastward moving MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A rapidly eastward propagating, likely cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured severe/damaging gusts (some exceeding 65 kts), persists along the PA/MD border. The 00Z observed IAD sounding depicts a relatively dry boundary layer in the general area, suggesting that deep-layer evaporative cooling is contributing to a deep/strong cold pool, which is likely supporting both MCS longevity, and severity of the corresponding severe wind swath. However, decreasing lightning trends raises questions as to how long this MCS will persist given weak to modest synoptic forcing, with longevity dependent on cold pool maintenance. Nonetheless, as long as the MCS persists, strong to potentially severe gusts remain possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39447672 39537694 39727698 39947678 39947665 39987619 39837556 39587542 39377562 39337612 39447672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 0491 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme north Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200201Z - 200330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat should continue with ongoing storms along the Red River into southern OK over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Several strong to severe thunderstorms are growing upscale into an MCS along the Red River, and these storms are poised to advance east-northeast across southern OK over the next few hours. An embedded, sustained supercell has recently produced a tornado in Love County, OK, and tornado potential is expected to continue with this storm, even if it morphs into a bowing/LEWP structure. Regional VADs depict large, curved hodographs across central TX/OK, and adequate surface based buoyancy remains in place. Furthermore, the 01Z Warn-on-Forecast run depicts continued swaths of stronger 0-2 km updraft helicity, indicative of longer-term low-level rotation potential with the ongoing storms. Given the strong low-level shear in place, a strong tornado remains possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33639787 34299729 34979653 35109589 34859547 34389545 33899616 33689704 33589738 33639787 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 200220Z - 200315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Edwards Plateau region. New WW is warranted by 03z. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of strong large-scale ascent is spreading across west TX. Cold front has recently surged through Fort Stockton and convection is expected to increase along the boundary as it advances east. Stalled synoptic front is currently draped from near Stephenville-San Angelo into Upton County. VAD profile from SJT exhibits very strong ESRH along the north side of the boundary, but substantial ESRH exists across the warm sector as well. LLJ is expected to increase ahead of the short wave over the next few hours, and a marked increase in convection is expected across the Edwards Plateau as forcing overspreads this region. While the primary storm mode may become more linear in nature, there is some concern for tornadoes with supercells that currently exist, and with embedded circulations along the forced line. New watch will likely issued by 03z to account for this evolution. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31130213 32109961 31389914 30770159 31130213 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0151 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0151 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0490 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0827 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200127Z - 200300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...An uptick in the tornado threat may be underway over southern portions of Tornado Watch 149. The extent of the tornado threat is dependent on further intensification of warm-sector supercells. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple small supercells have gradually organized over the past couple of hours over portions of central TX within the warm sector. KFWS NEXRAD data shows a likely low-level mesocyclone becoming established with a more dominant supercell in Erath County. These storms are intensifying amid a moist and unstable surface-based airmass, along the western periphery of an intensifying low-level jet. Given strong low-level shear in place, any further intensification with these storms may support tornado development. Some of the latest WoFs guidance also indicates the potential for increased low-level rotation with these storms over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31969884 32789838 33489790 33519729 33169701 32639725 32059780 31759811 31699848 31969884 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0150 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0150 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 200011Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time, these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector, where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify. Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the baroclinic boundary into the warm sector. Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807 31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0489 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200035Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary. As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant, likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654 33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more