Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 9 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 9 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091947Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are likely to produce hail through this evening. DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently exists over the northeastern Gulf, and near the coastal Florida Panhandle. While stronger overall instability resides to the south, substantial elevated instability exists well inland as southwest winds aloft persist and aid in moisture transport. Forecast soundings show strong effective shear over 60 kt, and these lengthy hodographs ahead of the upper trough will support hail production in elevated storms, including left movers. While only a few storms currently exist, additional development is possible near the frontal zone throughout the rest of the day. The primary threat should be hail above 1.00" diameter. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29948418 29558494 29628534 29998572 30328644 30298714 30238758 30608750 31328710 31898596 31888457 31278402 30708395 29948418 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more