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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498 ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-200740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-097- 101-107-111-121-127-135-145-200740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498 ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-200740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-097- 101-107-111-121-127-135-145-200740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DRT TO 25 WSW JCT TO 20 NNW BWD. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-137-171-265-267-299-307-319-327-411-465-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD SAN SABA VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BWD TO 25 E ABI TO 10 W SPS. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-059-429-503-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CALLAHAN STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0497 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 151... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 151... Valid 200458Z - 200630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 151. QLCS tornadoes are possible, and a swath of severe winds is also possible. A few gusts could exceed 75 mph. DISCUSSION...A progressive linear segment, embedded within a broader persistent elongated convective system (PECS), continues to rapidly track eastward toward a moderately unstable airmass (characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). This segment is showing both QLCS circulations, and bowing segments with a pronounced rear-inflow jet (evident via cross-sectional analysis of KSJT radar data). In addition to favorable buoyancy, stronger mid-level flow (and associated 60+ kt deep-layer shear vectors) are oriented slightly more orthogonal to the line segment compared to northern parts of the PECS. As this segment progresses into the 45-55 kt low-level jet, bowing segments and mesovortices should persist with both a tornado and severe gust threat. Some of the latest runs of Warn-on-Forecast output suggest that a focused severe wind swath may occur with this segment, and a couple of 75+ mph gusts cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30540105 31280075 31630008 31539911 31119870 30529898 30239970 30290053 30540105 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SJT TO 50 NNW ABI TO 25 SW FSI. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-059-207-253-399-417-429-441-447-503-200640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN HASKELL JONES RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 6R6 TO 25 NNE SJT. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-095-137-171-265-267-299-307-319-327-411-413-435-451- 465-200640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN CONCHO EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-200640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-097- 101-107-111-121-127-135-145-200640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH WAGONER Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more