SPC Mar 10, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will track east from the southern Rockies to the Southeast on Wednesday. A 70+ kt jet streak will mostly overspread central/southern TX toward LA through evening before weakening some overnight along the central Gulf coast. A weak surface low is forecast to move across OK through evening, and dissipate as it shifts toward the Lower MS Valley overnight. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will allow for modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the I-20 corridor, but overall moisture quality is expected to remain poor given the prior very dry airmass. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will result in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from east TX into southern AR. Some forecast guidance suggests midlevel capping my inhibit surface-based convection, with the NAM notably being an outlier with much stronger inhibition around 850 mb compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Given the region will be within the favorable left-exit region of the midlevel jet streak, providing sufficient forcing amid supercell wind profiles, even elevated storms could pose a severe risk, from mainly large hail. If surface-based convection can develop, strong gusts or perhaps a tornado (mainly over east TX where somewhat better moisture will be located), though this potential is more conditional. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will track east from the southern Rockies to the Southeast on Wednesday. A 70+ kt jet streak will mostly overspread central/southern TX toward LA through evening before weakening some overnight along the central Gulf coast. A weak surface low is forecast to move across OK through evening, and dissipate as it shifts toward the Lower MS Valley overnight. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will allow for modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the I-20 corridor, but overall moisture quality is expected to remain poor given the prior very dry airmass. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will result in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from east TX into southern AR. Some forecast guidance suggests midlevel capping my inhibit surface-based convection, with the NAM notably being an outlier with much stronger inhibition around 850 mb compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Given the region will be within the favorable left-exit region of the midlevel jet streak, providing sufficient forcing amid supercell wind profiles, even elevated storms could pose a severe risk, from mainly large hail. If surface-based convection can develop, strong gusts or perhaps a tornado (mainly over east TX where somewhat better moisture will be located), though this potential is more conditional. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

Burn ban in Corpus Christi, Texas

4 months 1 week ago
A burn ban took effect for Corpus Christi on March 7. It prohibits bonfires and recreational fires at beaches and city parks within city limits. Many fires have burned in Corpus Christi and in other parts of South Texas amid drought conditions. The ban will remain through March 23. Caller Times (Corpus Christi, Texas), March 9, 2025

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 10, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more