SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 9, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more