Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 20 16:59:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this afternoon and evening. The best corridor for tornadoes (some of which could be strong) and scattered to numerous damaging winds should exist from central/northern Arkansas into Missouri. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently moving into western Oklahoma will shift quickly northeastward this afternoon and tonight, crossing eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening and then continuing northeastward across Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight. Fast southwesterly flow aloft will exist in advance of this system, within the tight height gradient between this feature and the persistent ridge centered over the Southeast. At the surface, a developing low analyzed over western Oklahoma at 15Z is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Kansas and Missouri through the afternoon, and then should continue northward toward -- and eventually into -- southern Wisconsin by early Monday morning. While a warm front lifts northward across the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest, a cold front trailing from the low will sweep eastward into/across Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon and evening, and then across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys through the end of the period. ...Northeastern Texas northeastward to the western Illinois vicinity... An expansive area of multi-level cloud cover, along with ongoing convection, is evident across western and northern portions of the risk area late this morning, which continues to retard more substantial heating at this point. With that said, some breaks in the clouds are evident per recent visible imagery as far west as eastern Oklahoma, with thinning cloud cover with eastward/northeastward extent into Arkansas and the Ozarks. As the surface low over Oklahoma deepens through the day in tandem with the advance of the upper low, northward advance of the warm front with time will allow a moist boundary layer to likewise overspread much of Missouri and Illinois through sunset. This, combined with at least modest heating across portions of the area should yield an amply unstable environment (500 to near 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) to gradually evolve -- supporting a steady increase in convective coverage and intensity this afternoon. In contrast to the rather modest thermodynamic environment, a very favorable low-level and deep-layer wind field is evident, with respect to development of organized/rotating storms. An 80 kt mid-level jet will spread northeastward across the risk area with time, atop a 50-plus kt low-level jet. This will support vigorous updraft evolution, with all-hazards severe risk evolving as a result. At this time, it remains apparent that tornado potential -- including risk for a couple of strong tornadoes -- should maximize across the Ozarks, and areas just north and south, as surface winds back to southeasterly ahead of the deepening/advancing surface low. The primary risk should evolve with an anticipated, broken band of storms within the cold-frontal zone, including embedded supercells. Along with the tornado potential, fairly widespread coverage of damaging wind gusts is also expected, as complex, LEWP/bow-type structures are expected within the band of storms, as convection advances eastward across Missouri and Arkansas toward the Mississippi Valley through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe risk is expected to expand as far north as southeastern Iowa and adjacent western Illinois this evening, where weaker instability is expected, and as far south as eastern Texas where a weaker wind field with southward extent should limit severe potential on the southern fringe. Risk should very gradually diminish overnight as convection shifts eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ..Goss/Halbert.. 04/20/2025 Read more