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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more