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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 11 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 11 23:40:01 UTC 2025.