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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... Modest west-southwesterly flow is forecast from the Southwest to the southern Plains on Tuesday with a stronger mid-level jet across the northern Plains and a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (indicated by most guidance) is forecast to cross New Mexico during the afternoon which would result in a sharpening dryline and perhaps some lee cyclogenesis. ...Southern High Plains into southern Kansas... Low-level moisture advection and strong heating across the southern High Plains will lead to moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the dryline. As this airmass becomes uncapped by early to mid-afternoon and ascent increases ahead of the approaching mid-level shortwave trough, expect scattered thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer and 25 to 35 knots of shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storms will likely congeal into an MCS by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens with some severe wind threat which could continue into the overnight hours. A remnant frontal boundary will likely be in place across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon which will likely be an additional focus for potential severe storms Tuesday afternoon. Moisture/instability remains more questionable across southern Kansas, and shear is not forecast to be quite as strong amid somewhat veered low-level flow ahead of the front. Therefore, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been maintained at this time. ...Central Iowa to southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois... Moisture recovery along a warm frontal zone may lead to some weak instability from eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sustained isentropic ascent may provide sufficient forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the day. Despite the lack of moisture, cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...19z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with only minor changes. Some adjustments were made to the Elevated area over the central high Plains to better align with surface trough and axis of stronger winds. Some areas were also trimmed where fuel green up has occurred. A few hours of breezy winds and relatively dry surface conditions are possible across southwestern FL Monday afternoon. Dry fuels are in place and no rainfall is expected. However, winds should be weaker than the prior couple of days, suggesting fire-weather concerns will be more localized. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more