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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more