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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley northward. At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection. Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south of the initial system. ...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley... A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon, and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid changes overall will also support strong tornado potential interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley northward. At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection. Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south of the initial system. ...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley... A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon, and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid changes overall will also support strong tornado potential interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley northward. At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection. Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south of the initial system. ...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley... A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon, and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid changes overall will also support strong tornado potential interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley northward. At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection. Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south of the initial system. ...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley... A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon, and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid changes overall will also support strong tornado potential interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more