Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears possible within the moist/unstable warm sector. However, convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Thursday morning, and given a lack of any stronger upper forcing regime or surface cyclogenesis, confidence in where greater severe potential may develop is low, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Fri-Sat -- Southern Plains vicinity... Upper riding is forecast to overspread the Plains late in the week ahead of a deepening western U.S. upper trough. A cold front will sag south and east on Friday, extending from the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains. As the upper ridge builds, richer Gulf moisture will develop across TX into OK. Some localized strong/severe storms may develop across west TX during this time within the moist upslope flow regime, but the upper ridge and weak forcing should suppress more widespread severe potential. ...Days 7-8/Sun-Mon -- Plains to the MS Valley... Severe potential is likely to increase from OK/TX into the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley by early next week as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward. This should result in stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading a broad warm sector. This overall pattern is a synoptically favorable spring time pattern for severe storms across the Plains. Furthermore, control members and ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing/location of the ejecting upper trough and stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent delineated areas at this time. This is particularly the case of Day 7/Sun where forecast guidance has widespread precipitation ongoing during the morning. Given the otherwise favorable pattern, severe probabilities will likely be needed in the coming days as details become better refined. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears possible within the moist/unstable warm sector. However, convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Thursday morning, and given a lack of any stronger upper forcing regime or surface cyclogenesis, confidence in where greater severe potential may develop is low, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Fri-Sat -- Southern Plains vicinity... Upper riding is forecast to overspread the Plains late in the week ahead of a deepening western U.S. upper trough. A cold front will sag south and east on Friday, extending from the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains. As the upper ridge builds, richer Gulf moisture will develop across TX into OK. Some localized strong/severe storms may develop across west TX during this time within the moist upslope flow regime, but the upper ridge and weak forcing should suppress more widespread severe potential. ...Days 7-8/Sun-Mon -- Plains to the MS Valley... Severe potential is likely to increase from OK/TX into the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley by early next week as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward. This should result in stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading a broad warm sector. This overall pattern is a synoptically favorable spring time pattern for severe storms across the Plains. Furthermore, control members and ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing/location of the ejecting upper trough and stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent delineated areas at this time. This is particularly the case of Day 7/Sun where forecast guidance has widespread precipitation ongoing during the morning. Given the otherwise favorable pattern, severe probabilities will likely be needed in the coming days as details become better refined. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu -- Central/Southern Plains... Some severe thunderstorm potential is possible across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Thu. Similar to the Day 2-3/Tue-Wed period, a low-amplitude, and generally modest deep-layer southwesterly flow regime will persist. Southerly low level flow ahead of a southward sagging front across the central Plains, and to the east of a dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains will sustain advection of Gulf moisture across the region. At least some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms appears possible within the moist/unstable warm sector. However, convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Thursday morning, and given a lack of any stronger upper forcing regime or surface cyclogenesis, confidence in where greater severe potential may develop is low, precluding 15 percent delineation at this time. ...Days 5-6/Fri-Sat -- Southern Plains vicinity... Upper riding is forecast to overspread the Plains late in the week ahead of a deepening western U.S. upper trough. A cold front will sag south and east on Friday, extending from the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains. As the upper ridge builds, richer Gulf moisture will develop across TX into OK. Some localized strong/severe storms may develop across west TX during this time within the moist upslope flow regime, but the upper ridge and weak forcing should suppress more widespread severe potential. ...Days 7-8/Sun-Mon -- Plains to the MS Valley... Severe potential is likely to increase from OK/TX into the central Plains/Mid-MO Valley by early next week as the western upper trough begins to eject eastward. This should result in stronger southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading a broad warm sector. This overall pattern is a synoptically favorable spring time pattern for severe storms across the Plains. Furthermore, control members and ensemble members from the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement regarding the timing/location of the ejecting upper trough and stronger southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent delineated areas at this time. This is particularly the case of Day 7/Sun where forecast guidance has widespread precipitation ongoing during the morning. Given the otherwise favorable pattern, severe probabilities will likely be needed in the coming days as details become better refined. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A persistent low-amplitude, weak southwesterly flow pattern will persist across the Plains and into the eastern U.S. on Day 3/Wednesday. Forecast guidance indicates some weak shortwave perturbations will migrate through this weak southwesterly flow aloft, emanating from a weak upper trough over the western U.S. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will continue to transport modified Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and into the central Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from southern MN into central NE and northeast CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Persistent moist advection will allow for weak to moderate destabilization within the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong gusts could accompany this activity from southwest NE into western TX. ..Leitman.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ..Squitieri.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more