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The Borough of Greencastle was in a one-week burn ban that began on the morning of March 13. Antrim Township was in a 30-day burn ban that started on March 11. Washington Township also had a burn ban that began March 10. Echo-Pilot (Greencastle, Pa.), March 13, 2025

The Dover Borough Water System was under mandatory conservation, which was enacted in October. York Dispatch (Pa.), March 13, 2025

The Stewartstown Borough Water Authority was asking for voluntary water conservation. York Dispatch (Pa.), March 13, 2025

Lower Windsor Township was under a burn ban until further notice due to the forecast for dry weather. All open burning was prohibited. York Dispatch (Pa.), March 13, 2025

MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Areas affected...part of central and southern Alabama into southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131617Z - 131845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is increasing likely across parts of south central Alabama into southwestern Georgia through mid to late afternoon. This may include a few intensifying storms with potential to produce marginally severe hail and, gradually, a small organizing cluster or two accompanied by strong surface gusts later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath cool mid-level troughing in the 700-500 mb layer, a gradual boundary-layer moistening, and warming due to insolation and advection, are contributing to ongoing destabilization across the region. This is occurring as forecast soundings suggest that weak to modest large-scale ascent erodes a relatively warm capping layer between 850-700 mb. It appears this is supporting the deepening convective development evident in latest satellite and radar imagery, which guidance generally indicates will lead to increasing scattered thunderstorm development though 18-20Z. Beneath 35-50 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support gradually intensifying and organizing convection, in the presence of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-750+ J/kg. This may include one or two storms exhibiting mid-level updraft rotation, with the potential to produce marginally severe hail, and perhaps a small evolving cluster or two eventually accompanied by a few strong surface gusts later this afternoon, while propagating east-southeastward. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33108706 33018650 33038575 32868493 32058407 31238452 30818531 31308598 31628714 32548769 33108706 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, wid Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Critical risk area into the Texas Big Bend. 12Z high resolution guidance and HREF probabilities suggest several hours of critical fire weather conditions across this region later this afternoon. These environmental parameters combined with ongoing drought conditions in the region should bring critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more