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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more