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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Kansas wheat has not received much rain in April and was clearly drought-stressed. In western Kansas from Colby to Garden City to Tribune, the wheat is drought-stressed with yellow leaves at the bottom of the stems. “…, at this stage, the wheat plant has already set the total potential kernels that will develop in the wheat head. Any stress from here until harvest will drop that number down, although the impact of the current dry weather and temperature swings will not be realized until the plant is more fully developed.” Dodge City Daily Globe (Kan.), April 21, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more