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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more