SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...16z Update... No changes, benign fire-weather conditions are expected today and tonight. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought-stressed wheat in Kansas

4 months 3 weeks ago
Kansas wheat has not received much rain in April and was clearly drought-stressed. In western Kansas from Colby to Garden City to Tribune, the wheat is drought-stressed with yellow leaves at the bottom of the stems. “…, at this stage, the wheat plant has already set the total potential kernels that will develop in the wheat head. Any stress from here until harvest will drop that number down, although the impact of the current dry weather and temperature swings will not be realized until the plant is more fully developed.” Dodge City Daily Globe (Kan.), April 21, 2025

SPC Apr 22, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...Southern/Central Plains... Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025 Read more