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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more