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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

Wisconsin has had 526 wildfires that have burned more than 2,000 acres so far in April, which is twice the usual numbers for April. Northern News Now (Duluth, Minn.), April 18, 2025 Wisconsin had a record number of fires in January and February due to the lack of snow. Through April 14, the state has had more than 470 fires, double the average for this time of year. More than 1,900 acres have already burned. Debris-burning has caused almost half of all fires so far this year. Urban Milwaukee (Wis.), April 14, 2025 From the start of 2025 through March 26, Wisconsin has had about 273 wildfires that have charred about 1,593 acres, according to Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Wildfires Dashboards. Wildfire activity is significantly above the five- and 10-year trends. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Wis.), March 26, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

Warm, dry weather allowed a northeast Kansas farmer to get corn in the ground. Brownfield Ag Network (Jefferson City, Mo.), April 21, 2025

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 21 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 21 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more