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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

Water users in the Kennewick Irrigation District were urged to adopt a voluntary watering schedule as drought persists. NBCRightNow.com (Kennewick, Wash.), March 6, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more