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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

MD 0511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NERN OH...NWRN PA...SWRN NY STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 0511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...parts of nern OH...nwrn PA...swrn NY State Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211647Z - 211915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strengthening low-topped thunderstorm development appears probable by 3-5 PM EDT, including isolated to widely scattered supercells accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and at least some risk for a tornado. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Within the warm sector of an occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the upper peninsula of Michigan, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within at least a narrow corridor across eastern Ohio into the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Closely trailing an initial band of weak mid-level warm advection driven convection, which has contributed to saturation of initially dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles, boundary-layer moisture characterized by dew points near 60f, is rapidly advecting northeastward. This is occurring beneath the leading edge of a mid-level dry slot, which is allowing for increasing insolation. The NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that this will contribute to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, prior to the passage of the cold front. This is also occurring beneath a 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet axis, where forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs may include modest clockwise curvature of the shear vector with height by peak destabilization. As mid/upper forcing for ascent (downstream of the base of a negatively tilted short wave advancing toward the region) supports deepening convective development, there appears a window of opportunity for scattered low-topped supercell development by 19-21Z. This may be accompanied by a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and at least potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42887905 42497783 41857867 40827995 40408114 40938153 41898069 42887905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more