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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more

Maui County’s Department of Water Supply enacted a Stage 1 water shortage on Tuesday, Sept. 3 and the conservation will help lower water demand by 10%. The shortage stems from heavy demand which strained supply over the summer. Hawaii News Now, Sept. 7, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0168 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Areas affected...Northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132120Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A robust supercell moving across northwest/north-central AL will pose a large hail and severe wind threat for the next 1-3 hours. While very large hail is possible, this threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, a robust supercell has emerged from a cluster of relatively transient convection associated with weak low-level warm advection and ascent in proximity to a mid-level vorticity maximum. This cell is expected to continue propagating southeastward over the next 1-3 hours along a diffuse baroclinic zone near 925 mb. As this cell migrates southeast, it will be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level winds, which will likely help maintain storm longevity/organization. As such, a downstream corridor of locally higher severe hail/wind threat is becoming apparent. While 1-inch hail stones have already been reported from this storm, MRMS MESH suggest hail stones upwards of 1.5 to 2.0 inches will be possible. Although the regional severe threat will likely be focused with this cell, additional cells may sufficiently intensify to pose a large hail threat. ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34358814 34638805 34848778 34938738 34928705 34198563 33988553 33718562 33468614 33408663 33468708 33528746 33748779 34148805 34358814 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more