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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move from Wisconsin to Quebec through the period with a trailing cold front moving from the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This front will be more stationary across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and may start to move north by the end of the period across south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A narrow corridor of mid 60s dewpoints may be present across the Ohio Valley on Monday which could result in some weak instability despite extensive cloud cover and poor lapse rates. Robust vertical shear could result in a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts, but the limited instability should keep the threat minimal overall. Better-quality boundary layer moisture, slightly better lapse rates, and the potential for some warming may result in greater instability farther south, perhaps up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very weak where this better instability is forecast to develop. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. As weak instability develops across the northern Plains, scattered thunderstorms are possible. A well-mixed air mass could support an isolated severe wind threat, particularly across southwest South Dakota and vicinity where mid-level flow will be strongest. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight across eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Bentley.. 04/20/2025 Read more

WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0154 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains on track with only minor changes to the ongoing fire-weather risk areas for the latest guidance. Across southern New England, several hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible behind an offshore cold front. Gusts of 15-20 mph may overlap with RH below 20% this afternoon. While some wetting rain has tempered fuels on a scattered basis, enough dry fuels likely exist for some fire-weather threat. Across parts of the Dakotas and western MN, several hours of dry southerly winds are likely ahead of a surface trough. Gusts of 20-30 mph with RH below 30% could support some risk for fire concerns in dry grasses and fine fuels. However, larger fuels remain less receptive and some trimming was made on the eastern edge where wetting rainfall has occurred in the last 72 hours. ..Lyons.. 04/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more