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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more