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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082123Z - 090000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected to develop over the next few hours, with isolated large hail or gusty winds possible. DISCUSSION...A weak surface low is present south of the Austin TX area, where a cold front approaching from the west is intersecting the southward surging boundary. The eastern portion of the boundary extends across the Sabine River and into southern LA, with substantial clouds and cooler temperatures within that zone. Southerly winds across the warm sector have led to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints mixed into the upper 60s F. Deep-layer shear is robust at over 60 kt, with lengthy hodographs. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but modest SRH values exist near the warm advection zone east of Houston. Visible imagery shows deepening CU fields around Houston, indicative of a moist deepening boundary layer, and showers are beginning to show on radar. As the cold front pushes into the area and interacts with the unstable air mass near peak heating, at least isolated cells are anticipated. Good lapse rates aloft and strong deep shear will support hail. A conditional damaging wind or even brief tornado risk could potentially occur with any storm that remains situated along the cold front/warm front intersection north/east of Houston, but any such threat should remain localized. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30819565 30979498 30879446 30529426 30179440 29829462 29399504 29169542 28939588 28769627 28869661 29059674 29309674 29769662 29889653 30509606 30819565 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 8 23:36:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more