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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more