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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula. ...Coastal Carolinas... As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response, the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for severe storms low. ...Florida Peninsula... Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures, resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the front moves offshore by early afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more