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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

MD 0495 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200334Z - 200500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across northern portions of Tornado Watch 149 in southeastern OK. DISCUSSION...A tornadic QLCS has materialized across portions of southeast OK, with a tornadic debris signature recently observed over Ada, OK. This parent circulation (possibly an embedded supercell mesocyclone), as well as multiple other pronounced mesovortices, should continue to track eastward across southeast OK over the next few hours. These storms continue to be preceded by a moist boundary layer and strong low-level shear (given the presence of a southerly 40+ kt low-level jet per 02Z mesoanalysis data). As such, tornado potential will continue with this QLCS, as also suggested by some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast output. A strong tornado remains possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33859716 34609680 35049645 35219585 35089548 34689539 34199552 33919586 33829620 33769678 33859716 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast/Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 200339Z - 200445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon across portions of northeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Intense low-level warm advection has developed across eastern OK into northwest AR, per latest VAD profiles from INX/SRX. 0-3km SRH is impressive across this region as the LLJ is strengthening into this area. Over the last few hours, an elongated MCS has matured across ww159, and several long-lived supercells, with tornadoes at times, are embedded along a corridor from Parker County TX to Hughes County OK. Boundary-layer air mass is gradually recovering across this region with lower 60s surface dew points north of I40 into northwest AR. Severe threat is expected to increase across this area over the next several hours as the upstream MCS spreads into this region, but isolated supercells are also likely within the warm-advection zone. New Tornado Watch is warranted across this area. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35459643 36139555 36409433 36009384 34749487 35459643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0152 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SJT TO 25 ESE LBB. ..SPC..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-033-059-081-107-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-335- 353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447-503-200540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN CALLAHAN COKE CROSBY DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX MITCHELL NOLAN REAGAN RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0494 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of north Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200310Z - 200415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across southern parts of Tornado Watch 149. A brief, short-term uptick in tornado potential is possible with supercells merging with a baroclinic boundary. DISCUSSION...Three supercells are currently tracking northeastward across portions of north TX, west of the DFW metroplex. The Parker County supercell has a history of tornadoes, and tornado potential will continue with both of these storms over the next few hours. In the next 1-2 hours, these storms are poised to merge with a baroclinic boundary, which has encouraged other storms to merge into an MCS. With the boundary merger, a localized, brief uptick in tornado potential may be realized, and a strong tornado may occur. Thereafter, the storms will merge into the MCS and either become embedded supercells, or LEWPs/bowing segments, with some tornado threat persisting, though severe gusts will also be a concern. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32359842 32989820 33399791 33709757 33639716 33299709 32789737 32519757 32289805 32359842 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more