Aggregator

WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0149 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 148 TORNADO TX 192220Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue to develop and mature in the vicinity of a west to east oriented boundary over the Watch area through the evening. The supercells will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, as well as large to very large hail and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of San Angelo TX to 75 miles east northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

WW 149 TORNADO OK TX 192345Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Saturday night from 645 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify over the Watch area this evening. A few supercells are likely to develop as the low-level jet strengthens this evening, while conditions remains moist and adequately unstable for surface-based storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms, in addition to the risk for large hail and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Mcalester OK to 10 miles southeast of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0149 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192329Z - 200100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A WW issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain relatively unimpeded inflow. Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569 34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785 32689796 33059786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0486 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...southeast Ohio into central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192220Z - 192345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing this evening along a surface-cold front. Despite strong deep-layer shear, modest instability should limit the overall severe threat and a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move east across southern Ohio with a history of producing sporadic tree damage. Farther northeast, additional thunderstorms are developing along a surface-cold front pushing southeast through Pennsylvania. The overall environment in which these storms are progressing is best characterized by mixed-layer CAPE around 500 J/kg and effective-layer shear between 50-60 knots. Model soundings along and ahead of these storms suggest maximum mid-level-lapse rates greater than 8 C/km within the 500-700-mb layer which would suggest a continued threat for some hail and wind. Ahead of these thunderstorms, diurnal heating allowed for some mixing out of low-level moisture which is contributing to a significant reduction in 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE with eastward extend. The combination of decreasing instability and the loss of diurnal heating should promote an overall decreasing intensity trend and preclude the need for a watch. ..Marsh/Smith.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 38638367 39148329 39858220 40468057 40937874 40737761 40287740 39797777 39107980 38668184 38568292 38638367 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 19 22:21:02 UTC 2025.

WW 148 TORNADO TX 192220Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue to develop and mature in the vicinity of a west to east oriented boundary over the Watch area through the evening. The supercells will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, as well as large to very large hail and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of San Angelo TX to 75 miles east northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more