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MD 0499 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 151...152... FOR SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Southwest...Central and North-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...152... Valid 200701Z - 200900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151, 152 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will continue to be possible for a few more hours across parts of south-central, central and north-central Texas. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor and mosaic radar imagery show a linear MCS located across the from the Texas Hill Country extending north-northeastward into central Texas. Ahead of the line of strong to severe storms, a narrow axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP. This line is located along the western edge of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. Short-term model forecasts suggest the low-level jet will strengthen and shift northward, providing lift favorable for continued storm maintenance within the MCS. RAP forecast soundings near and ahead of the linear MCS have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, and bowing segments. A tornado or two will also be possible with supercells or any rotating element within the line. Also, forecast soundings along the southern end of the line have a capping inversion. This inversion is expected to increase with time. As the storms move gradually eastward, this cap should help reduce severe potential. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30369896 31479822 32299782 32779787 33089807 33179836 33189863 33069898 32769922 32279924 31739957 31010000 30530031 30230043 30000024 30059947 30369896 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500 ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-043-057-059-067-077-105-109-119-145-153-167-209-213-225- 229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BWD TO 35 E SEP TO 40 N FTW TO 20 SW MLC TO 35 WSW MKO. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-201040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-061-077-079-091-101-121-127-135-201040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC035-085-097-113-121-147-181-193-251-333-439-201040- Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HDO TO 60 SSE BWD TO 25 E BWD. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC171-265-299-411-200940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILLESPIE KERR LLANO SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more