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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ---A wildfire outbreak is likely across portions of southeastern New Mexico into northwest Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and western Oklahoma.--- ...Southern High Plains... The D2 Extremely Critical area was expanded into western Oklahoma with this outlook. Conditions look favorable across this region beneath the axis of the low-level thermal ridge, with sustained winds 25-30 mph (gusting 50-60 mph),relative humidity around 10-15 percent, and temperatures warming in to the upper 70s to 80s. In addition, concerns continue for ongoing fires and changes in fire behavior with the eastward shift of the dryline Tuesday afternoon and potential wind shift from southerly to westerly by the afternoon. The D2 Critical was expanded across central Oklahoma with this outlook to account for eastward mixing of the dryline Tuesday afternoon. While there is some uncertainty in duration of Critical winds and relative humidity, strong gusts along the boundary in addition to a shift in the winds from southerly to westerly through time will likely change fire behavior in ongoing fires and create concern for the afternoon. ...Southern Arizona and New Mexico... The Critical area was extended across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico with this outlook to account for recent trends. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more