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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

MD 0556 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS AND EASTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0556 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern MS and eastern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251406Z - 251530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized, marginal severe hail/wind threat may develop through late morning into midday along/east of a portion of the Lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...On the southern extent of a broad, generally broken convective plume from the Lower MS to Lower OH Valleys, a few deeper updrafts have persisted. 12Z observed soundings in this region sampled rich low-level moisture with moist-adiabatic lapse rates throughout the troposphere. Still, with 20-30 kt effective bulk shear, transient/weak mid-level updraft rotation remains possible with semi-discrete storms on the tail-end of the convective plume. With more robust insolation across southern LA, MLCAPE should gradually build ahead of these storms as they slowly move east-southeast through midday. Small to marginally severe hail is probably the main morning hazard, with strong gusts from wet microbursts possible as well. Longevity of this activity into the afternoon is uncertain given its development on the immediate backside of the weak mid-level impulse that may outpace the convection as it moves east into AL. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31959149 31979080 31858992 31578924 31078940 30758977 30669094 30759190 31049209 31409193 31959149 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley. The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves. Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX this afternoon and evening. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries, particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective initiation within the uncapped airmass. Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX and southwest OK. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential, but a few damaging gusts are still possible. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025 Read more