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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more