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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0171 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 171 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BGD TO 30 NNW CSM TO 20 SSW END TO 30 E END. ..BROYLES..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-015-017-039-055-057-073-075-083-109-129-149-250640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CUSTER GREER HARMON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN OKLAHOMA ROGER MILLS WASHITA TXC011-065-087-129-179-483-250640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS. At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a relatively concentrated area over West Texas. ...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK... Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail, damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well. ..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025 Read more