Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Day 1 Update... Minor modifications were made to Elevated highlights across New Mexico. Southeast surface winds are expected to persist today across southeastern New Mexico, inhibiting drier downslope flow off the Sacramento Mountains from mixing out the shallow moist layer in place. A very dry boundary layer across the Southwest combined with increasing southwest winds is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where dry fuels/drought remains. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025 Read more