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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO FAR EASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...TX South Plains and the southern Panhandle into far eastern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251721Z - 251915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop by late afternoon. Very large hail from baseball to softball size will be the primary initial threat. Tornado potential may be brief/limited early, but will increase into early evening. A tornado watch will be needed by mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a cyclone just west of Amarillo, along a wavy quasi-stationary front across the southern High Plains. A convective outflow boundary, reinforced by earlier convection over OK, extends in a west/east-orientation centered on the Plainview vicinity. Despite nebulous large-scale ascent, low-level convergence along these boundaries coupled with continued boundary-layer heating should yield sustained thunderstorm development by 19-20Z. Ample low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points are well-established to the south of the outflow boundary. Despite some weak mid-level warming, peak MLCAPE should reach 2500-3000 J/kg in a couple hours. Low-level winds will initially be weak, but sufficient elongation of the hodograph will support at least a few intense supercells by late afternoon. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should become evident, with any discrete supercells along the mesoscale outflow boundary, as the west TX low-level jet strengthens into early evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35620252 35030269 34440326 33910344 32950358 32750295 32740235 33110144 33150059 33350033 34040041 34580117 35280148 35660162 35620252 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0172 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0172 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 25 17:47:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging aloft will persist across the central U.S. Saturday, as short-wave troughing over the Great Lakes region moves into/across the Lower Lakes/Northeast, and a western U.S. upper low makes slow eastward progress across California and into Nevada. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, while trailing westward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southern Plains. ...Parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... Widespread convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period within a zone from far eastern New Mexico eastward to Oklahoma/North Texas. Resulting cloud cover and likely southward progression of outflow across western Texas casts some uncertainty with respect to recovery of the afternoon airmass across the MRGL risk area. Presuming ample heating occurs, isolated, new-storm development -- likely near remnant outflow -- may pose additional potential for local, all-hazards severe potential. This area will likely require some adjustment in later outlooks, as the effects of early-day convection can be more accurately ascertained. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more