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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless, strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward the OH Valley. ...Midwest to OH Valley... Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile. Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear, and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated tornado. There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low 50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability. ...TN Valley into the Southeast... At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+ kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the 850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances of damaging gusts/hail. ..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Extremely Critical fire weather area was expanded further west into west-central New Mexico with this update. This is to account for updated status of fuels across northern New Mexico, where ERCs are now in the 75th-90th percentile. Current surface observations show areas of Extremely Critical conditions ongoing near the lee of some of the high terrain across western New Mexico. Scattered cloud cover is observed across portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, though some mixing and clearing has occurred. HREF guidance suggests cloud cover across the Extremely Critical will decrease into the afternoon, with mostly sunny conditions by 20-21z. Through the late afternoon into the evening, models continue to suggest that the dryline will advance eastward with relative humidity dropping across western/central Oklahoma. In addition, winds will shift to become more westerly through time. The Elevated was expanded further south into south-central Texas in alignment with trends in observations and model guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across the south central Great Plains by late tonight. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley. In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend, boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours, model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return, will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight. Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer. Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain. Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across the south central Great Plains by late tonight. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley. In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend, boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours, model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return, will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight. Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer. Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain. Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across the south central Great Plains by late tonight. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley. In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend, boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours, model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return, will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight. Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer. Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain. Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across the south central Great Plains by late tonight. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley. In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend, boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours, model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return, will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight. Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer. Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain. Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... Much of the nation remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific. Within this regime, mid-level troughing is in the process of digging across the Intermountain West and Rockies. This includes one significant embedded smaller-scale perturbation approaching the southern Rockies, which is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward across the south central Great Plains by late tonight. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper jet streak, including a core intensifying in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb, nosing across the Texas Panhandle vicinity through the lower Missouri Valley from early this evening through 12Z Wednesday. It appears that this may be accompanied by substantive further deepening of a developing low across central through northeastern Kansas, within already deep surface troughing now present across the central/southern Great Plains into lower/middle Missouri Valley. In the wake of the prior cyclone which impacted much of the central and eastern U.S. and Gulf Basin late last week into the weekend, boundary-layer moistening across the western Gulf is underway, but still only supportive of rather modest low-level moistening across the Texas Gulf coast into southeastern Great Plains (including low to mid 50s F surface dew points). It appears that this will reach portions of the lower central Great Plains into Upper Midwest late this evening through early Wednesday. However, relatively warm and dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere, associated with a broad plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the central/southern Great Plains and middle/lower Mississippi Valley, will tend to impede an appreciable risk for thunderstorm development. ...Central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest... Perhaps as early as late this evening, into the overnight hours, model output continues to indicate that strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, coupled with better low-level moisture return, will overcome the inhibition and support a corridor of thunderstorm development. This likely will be focused within strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along a frontal zone extending to the east-northeast of the surface cyclone, across southeastern Nebraska through central Iowa by late tonight. Based at least on the latest NAM, it appears that the more sustained and stronger thunderstorm development may initiate as early as late evening near/east-northeast of the Concordia KS vicinity, before spreading northeastward. This seems likely to occur as convection begins to become increasingly rooted below the 700 mb level, closer to 850 mb, with soundings perhaps becoming characterized by "loaded gun" thermodynamic profiles above the near-surface stable layer. Although most unstable CAPE may mostly peak in the 500-750 J/kg range, stronger cells may become conducive to marginally severe hail, aided by strong shear in the convective layer. The potential for strong surface gusts is somewhat more uncertain. Although the risk for strong downdrafts to reach the surface appears negligible, gravity wave induced surface pressure perturbations supportive of gusty winds may not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Bunting.. 03/18/2025 Read more