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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more