Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

MD 0564 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 260604Z - 260800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a couple more hours from the the Texas Panhandle eastward into eastern New Mexico. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a somewhat large convective cluster from eastern New Mexico extending eastward into the southwestern and central Texas Panhandle. These storms are located along the northern edge of an unstable airmass, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by the instability, along with warm advection associated with a 30 to 40 knot low to mid-level jet over west Texas. RAP forecast soundings at 06Z in the southwestern Texas Panhandle have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometers. This shear environment will likely be favorable for isolated supercells with a large hail threat. The greatest potential for large hail is expected from the southwestern Texas Panhandle into eastern New Mexico where the where the combination of instability, shear and steep lapse rates appears to be maximized. In addition, supercells could produce isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34150365 34240426 34370438 34490443 34600442 34770425 35080372 35480248 35540227 35570145 35320123 34980118 34480171 34210242 34150365 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-069-075-079-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-189-191- 219-269-279-303-345-369-381-437-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING LAMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY PARMER RANDALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-069-075-079-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-189-191- 219-269-279-303-345-369-381-437-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING LAMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY PARMER RANDALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-069-075-079-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-189-191- 219-269-279-303-345-369-381-437-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING LAMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY PARMER RANDALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 174 SEVERE TSTM TX 260300Z - 260900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1000 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue through late evening into the overnight, with some additional organization possible, potentially including Mesoscale Convective System development. Periodic large hail will remain possible along with locally damaging winds as the primary hazards into the overnight, as storms progress generally eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Plainview TX to 20 miles southeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-069-075-079-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-189-191- 219-269-279-303-345-369-381-437-260740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING LAMB LUBBOCK MOTLEY PARMER RANDALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more