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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more