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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more