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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260957Z - 261230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado may also occur. Although weather watch issuance appears unlikely, the situation will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A small severe convective cluster is currently ongoing across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and far southwest Oklahoma. This convection is expected to continue moving eastward along an east-to-west gradient of instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings eastward along the projected path of the storms have effective shear near 35 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment should be enough to support a continued severe threat over the next couple of hours. An isolated large hail threat and potential for severe gusts will be possible, mainly with supercells. In addition, forecast soundings suggest that enough low-level shear is present for an isolated tornado threat. The storms will continue to move eastward across southwest Oklahoma, and trends will be monitored for additional upscale growth and organization. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34249977 34039802 34869768 35129801 35229878 35189985 35080032 34900054 34700057 34530052 34340026 34249977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0565 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 260843Z - 261045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts could continue for another hour or two. Weather watch extension may become necessary as the 09Z watch expiration approaches. DISCUSSION...Latest hi-res radar imagery from Amarillo shows an MCS over the southern Texas Panhandle extending westward into northeastern New Mexico. This relatively large cluster of storms is located along an east-to-west oriented instability gradient, with the RAP suggesting that MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. These storms are being supported by large-scale associated with shortwave trough over west Texas, and by warm advection that is occurring over the southern Plains. The WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with an abrupt wind shift around 1 km above ground level. This amount of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible. The severe threat my last for a couple more hours, and could necessitate a watch extension. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34459998 34270044 34230133 34260246 34470297 34760301 34960294 35130263 35140179 35100012 34459998 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes are likely. ...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday... ...Midwest into the Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear, embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening low-level shear. Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward, creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...Central/Southern Plains... A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more