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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced, coupled mid-level/surface trough will traverse the Midwest into the OH Valley as a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies on Friday. Some of the latest guidance depicts a plume of cooler temperatures aloft accompanying the Midwest/OH Valley mid-level trough, which may support a few lightning flashes over these regions Friday into Friday night. Likewise, cooler temperatures aloft will overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as this mid-level trough passes overhead, perhaps resulting in enough buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced, coupled mid-level/surface trough will traverse the Midwest into the OH Valley as a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies on Friday. Some of the latest guidance depicts a plume of cooler temperatures aloft accompanying the Midwest/OH Valley mid-level trough, which may support a few lightning flashes over these regions Friday into Friday night. Likewise, cooler temperatures aloft will overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as this mid-level trough passes overhead, perhaps resulting in enough buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced, coupled mid-level/surface trough will traverse the Midwest into the OH Valley as a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies on Friday. Some of the latest guidance depicts a plume of cooler temperatures aloft accompanying the Midwest/OH Valley mid-level trough, which may support a few lightning flashes over these regions Friday into Friday night. Likewise, cooler temperatures aloft will overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as this mid-level trough passes overhead, perhaps resulting in enough buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191621Z - 191845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely across parts of southeastern Iowa into west central into central Illinois through 1-3 PM CDT. This may include increasing potential for a couple of tornadoes, severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch, which appears more probable across parts of central/eastern Illinois later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered, modest convective development has been occurring to the east-northeast of a deep, occluding cyclone now centered north of Kansas City. This has been focused along a dryline, which may continue to become better defined into early afternoon, as the Rapid Refresh suggests that the trailing cold front may not quite overtake it. The leading edge of the primary cooling at mid-levels is contributing to steepening lapse rates along the dryline and, with a gradual moistening (surface dew points increasing through the lower 50s) of the boundary-layer ahead of it, appreciable further destabilization is expected. It appears that this may include mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 500-1000 j/kg in a corridor from near the triple point across the southeastern Iowa vicinity into central Illinois. As this occurs, initially scattered, low-topped thunderstorm development is likely to undergo a gradual intensification, beneath an intense south-southwesterly mid/upper jet. Low-level hodographs remain rather modest to weak, and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that this may not change much until later this afternoon across parts of east central Illinois (roughly near/east of the Bloomington and Decatur vicinities). However, it is possible that ambient vertical vorticity and steepening low-level lapse rates along the dryline, near the triple point, may support potential for at least a couple of generally brief/weak tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41469066 41088906 38938848 38998954 39438987 39639122 40889185 41469066 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more