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WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 172 TORNADO NM TX 251855Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. Once storms develop, the stronger storms will likely evolve into intense supercells capable of large to giant hail. The risk for tornadoes will probably maximize late this afternoon into the evening as low-level winds strengthen. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Cannon Afb NM to 25 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0562 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 172... FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 252314Z - 260115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...A cyclic supercell continues to pose a large hail and tornado risk northwest of the Lubbock area, and may persist for a couple more hours as it move south/southeast. DISCUSSION...A lone intense supercell continues to evolve along the instability gradient, very near the LBB area. Surface observations show cooler air spreading in from the east across the PVW observation, with much warmer air around LBB. In addition, a substantial boundary-layer CU field is evident on visible imagery, from the Abilene/Snyder area northwestward to the ongoing supercell. Given the orientation of the instability gradient and time of day, the cell may tend to turn right/south, favoring renewed development toward the theta-e axis. Although a due-southeast motion would bring the cell into Lubbock later this evening, it is entirely possible the cell remains to the west due to dropping temperatures nearby. ..Jewell.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34010229 33950214 33830200 33550160 33350166 33240179 33130204 33190224 33840241 34010229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-260040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 173 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 251940Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Initially storms will likely focus near the higher terrain but will eventually move east into lower elevations. The stronger storms will likely become supercells with both left and right splitting supercells possible. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. A tornado is possible during the early evening as low-level winds strengthen. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Carlsbad NM to 45 miles southwest of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 25 22:40:06 UTC 2025.

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-252340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-101-107-117-125-129-153-155-165- 169-189-191-219-269-275-279-303-305-345-359-369-375-381-437-445- 501-252340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-252340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-101-107-117-125-129-153-155-165- 169-189-191-219-269-275-279-303-305-345-359-369-375-381-437-445- 501-252340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-252340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-252340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 172 TORNADO NM TX 251855Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. Once storms develop, the stronger storms will likely evolve into intense supercells capable of large to giant hail. The risk for tornadoes will probably maximize late this afternoon into the evening as low-level winds strengthen. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Cannon Afb NM to 25 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR THE TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 252044Z - 252215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north into far southeast NM. ..Grams.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423 31980430 31860343 31580316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more