SPC MD 563

4 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR WEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 260001Z - 260200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds will continue across WW 173 into the early evening hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing in an environment largely characterized by straight-line hodographs will continue to favor splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. The most robust of these supercells is a left split that has moved northward into WW 172, but additional storms continue to develop along the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos mountains. Short term forecast guidance suggests that this activity should die down after sunset, though ample buoyancy and shear along with a westward retreating dryline could result in some lingering after-dark threat. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30690456 31170481 32250478 32600459 32800416 32830353 32730292 32420256 31900241 31290252 30790270 30510292 30510378 30490421 30690456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE FST TO 55 SSW GDP. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-260240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-301-389-475-495-260240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 173 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 251940Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. Initially storms will likely focus near the higher terrain but will eventually move east into lower elevations. The stronger storms will likely become supercells with both left and right splitting supercells possible. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. A tornado is possible during the early evening as low-level winds strengthen. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Carlsbad NM to 45 miles southwest of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

SPC MD 562

4 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0562 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 172... FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 252314Z - 260115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...A cyclic supercell continues to pose a large hail and tornado risk northwest of the Lubbock area, and may persist for a couple more hours as it move south/southeast. DISCUSSION...A lone intense supercell continues to evolve along the instability gradient, very near the LBB area. Surface observations show cooler air spreading in from the east across the PVW observation, with much warmer air around LBB. In addition, a substantial boundary-layer CU field is evident on visible imagery, from the Abilene/Snyder area northwestward to the ongoing supercell. Given the orientation of the instability gradient and time of day, the cell may tend to turn right/south, favoring renewed development toward the theta-e axis. Although a due-southeast motion would bring the cell into Lubbock later this evening, it is entirely possible the cell remains to the west due to dropping temperatures nearby. ..Jewell.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34010229 33950214 33830200 33550160 33350166 33240179 33130204 33190224 33840241 34010229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening. Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern OH into western WV... A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 172 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E TCC TO 35 E AMA TO 55 NNE BGS. ..JEWELL..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-260140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-069-079-107-117-153-165-169-189-219-279-303-305- 369-381-437-445-501-260140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DEAF SMITH FLOYD GAINES GARZA HALE HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN PARMER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more