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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

MD 0567 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SERN OK...NRN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nrn TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261419Z - 261615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorm activity may be maintained east-northeastward across and just north of the Red River vicinity of southeastern Oklahoma into midday. However, the risk for severe hail and wind appears unlikely to substantively increase from what it has been the past several hours. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection, focused near the northeastern periphery of a remnant plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air across northwestern Texas, may be the primary forcing for ongoing convective development across and north of the Red River vicinity. Convection remains strongest in a small cluster now east and south of Fort Sill OK, near one more notable meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation which has evolved. A broader MCV may be slowly migrating across parts of northwestern into north central Oklahoma. This is embedded within a moderately sheared (due to clockwise turning of wind fields/shear vectors with height), but modest (on the order of 20 kt) southwesterly mean flow, maintained by seasonably moist east-southeasterly updraft inflow. Based on objective analyses and the 12Z sounding from FWD, this is characterized by CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, which may not change appreciably as activity continues east-northeastward near/north of the Red River into mid day. It is possible that a destabilizing boundary-layer, in the presence of weakening inhibition across the Ark-La-Tex and Red River vicinity, could become supportive of intensifying updrafts along the convective outflow later this afternoon. However, until then, potential for appreciable intensification of ongoing activity appears low in the near term. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 35009770 35189600 34869528 33299545 32859693 33450017 33819873 34039815 34339794 35009770 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX. Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased across eastern OK. Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains. Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm development across these areas is less certain, with limited coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are possible with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley, and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025 Read more